The US economy is in a crucial moment. It’s caught between high inflation rates, recession fears and a return of productivity growth and strength on the job market. As the world’s largest economy surges after the pandemic, which trend will prevail through to the end of the year?
The third quarter’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which rose to 2.6 per cent, pulled the US economy from a technical recession that had gripped the country for the first two quarters. The strength of the labor market can partly explain some of this growth. According to a Federal Reserve survey, although the pandemic is slowly receding into the past, there are still concerns about a possible recession.
The October 2022 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) reveals that most banks believe there’s a probability of greater or equal to 40 percent that a mild to moderate recession would occur in the next 12 months.
According to the…