There has been wall-to-wall news coverage around the world of Trump’s pending arrest later today. The media has been tracking his plane from Florida to New York with more attention than NORAD’s reports of the whereabouts of Santa on Christmas. What is the trade opportunity in this event?
One, albeit superficial, potential consequence is similar to what happens during the world cup: People get distracted, trading volume drops, and there are more chances of market “errors”. This week is already slow with very few data releases and a shorter trading session due to Easter, China’s holiday, and Spring Break. This could lead to wider swings and greater irrationality in the market.
Beyond the political drama
There has been a lot of hype surrounding the case. It is quite unusual that a former President would be arrested. However, beyond the distraction from other events that could directly impact the markets, Trump’s arrest doesn’t appear to have any immediate effects on market expectations.
There certainly is some rampant speculation about how the indictment could affect Trump’s chances of securing the Republican nomination and from there going on to win the…
