Home Market Oil UPTREND and Natural gas DOWNTREND

Oil UPTREND and Natural gas DOWNTREND

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  • During the Asian session, the price of crude oil rose after a significant withdrawal yesterday.
  • The price of natural gas has fallen out of its rising channel.
  • China increases Iranian oil imports.

Oil chart analysis

During the Asian session, the price of crude oil rose after a significant withdrawal yesterday. Sentiment in the entire stock market was bad again, and the sale of everything undermined oil. The dwindling supply before the driving season in the United States, together with the better health situation in China, could recover the price. Recent data show that the strategic oil reserves of the USA have been at the lowest level since 1987.

Yesterday’s report showed that the USA’s crude oil stocks dropped by 3.39 million barrels. Crude oil is trading at $ 105.90 a barrel, down 1.10% from trading tonight. Based on it, we can draw a channel on the chart and monitor this pullback of oil prices. For the bearish option, we need to continue this negative consolidation and break below this morning’s low to $ 105,102. Our potential bearish targets today are $ 104.00, $ 103.00, $ 102.00 and psychological $ 100.00 level. For the bullish option, we need a new positive consolidation and a price return in the zone around $ 108.00-108.50. After that, we need a bullish impulse that would throw us over this channel. Today’s potential bullish targets are $ 110.00, $ 111.00, and $ 112.00.

Oil chart analysis  

Natural gas chart analysis

The price of natural gas has fallen out of its rising channel, and the price is down 3.84% today from the start of trading tonight. From yesterday’s high of $ 8.50, the price has dropped to the current $ 7.88. The drop in demand and the end of the heating season are also the reason why the price could retreat to the previous support zones. Today’s potential bearish targets are $ 7.73, $ 7.55, and $ 7.44 level. We need a new positive consolidation and a return above the $ 8.00 price for the bullish option. After that, we return to the previous bullish channel and continue to the bullish side. If the price manages to return to positive territory, our following targets are $ 8.35 and $ 8.50 levels.

Natural gas chart analysis  

Market overview

In the flash data of the CME Group for crude oil futures, traders reduced their open interest rates for the second day in a row, now by about 7.5 thousand contracts. The trade volume increased for the third day in a row, now by almost 51 thousand contracts.

This fall in WTI prices on Wednesday was amid a continued decline in open interest rates, leaving the possibility of further price cuts in the very near future.

China increases Iranian oil imports.

Reuters reports that after somewhat reducing Iranian oil in favour of Russian crude oil at a big discount, China will now receive almost two million barrels of Iranian oil. The cargo will be unloaded in southern China this week for pumping into state reserves, and it is the third major cargo coming from Iran since December.

The cargo is allegedly on a tanker owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company, which indicates that it will be officially registered as a Chinese purchase of Iranian oil.

China does not officially register all crude oil imports from Iran, and some oil imports are disguised as looking like they come from other suppliers, including Iraq and Oman. Reuters estimates that unofficial imports of Iranian crude oil to China account for about 7% of total crude oil imports.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Iranian oil exports jumped to 870,000 barrels per day in the first three months of this year, an increase of 30% compared to total exports in 2021.

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