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Market Update – September 2 – USD Holds at Highs, Stocks stem losses

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  • USDIndex – spiked to 109.95 highs yesterday and holds the BID @109.50 now. A strong NFP could lift the USD even higher. A weak number could prick the USD bubble from 20-yr highs. Strong Weekly Claims and PMI’s added to USD demand. Fed Fund Futures now at 74%/26% for 75bp vs. 50 bp at next Fed meeting.

  • EURECB action expected next week, but EUR remains under Parity lows of 0.9910, trades at 0.9970 now.
  • JPY rallies again (new 24 yr highs) broke 140.00 & holds at 140.30 BOJ holding accommodative policy line, & yield differentials driving trend. 
  • GBP new multi-year lows under 1.1500 yesterday, back to 1.1550 now. New PM next week.
  • Stocks US stocks halted 4-day slide (S&P500 3966).  Nvidia -7.67%, AMD -3% weighed again. Futs. flat at 3968 now.

  • Oil down again on weak outlook,  lows at $86.25 and trades at $88.20 now.
  • Gold – also down under $1700 to $1688 lows, back to $1702 now.
  • BTC – recovers 20k again today, from 19.5k lows yesterday. 

OvernightNZD Trade Balance  missed (-2.4% vs 0.6%German Trade Balance  better than expected (see below).

Today – US NFP & Factory Orders, EZ Producer Prices.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.68%). Continued to recover from weekly lows at 1.6185 on Tuesday to 1.6450 today, next resistance 1.6485.  MAs aligning higher,  MACD histogram positive & signal line rising, RSI 63.62,  H1 ATR 0.00238, Daily ATR 0.01615.

 

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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With over 25 years experience working for a host of globally recognized organisations in the City of London, Stuart Cowell is a passionate advocate of keeping things simple, doing what is probable and understanding how the news, charts and sentiment work together to provide trading opportunities across all asset classes and all time frames.


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