Wall Street debates whether the bear market rally is over. US stocks have fallen. With the exception of an inflation-fueled ISM Services index, it should be relatively on the data front until Friday’s one-two punch of PPI and the University of Michigan report.
Many traders are wondering if next week’s Fed decision will be the last one with a rate hike. Fed fund futures forecast a 50bps rise on December 14.Th The February 1stst It is still a toss up between a 25-bp increase and one final half-point increment. With the economy’s service sector refusing to shrink, inflation will likely be even more persistent. This economy should be heading for a recession because it is still exposing the Fed to greater risks. This next recession however won’t be rescued by quick Fed easing or a fiscal response as that will fuel inflation risks.
Unexpectedly, ISM’s services index improved in November. However, prices paid were slightly lower. This report may indicate that wage pressures are likely to remain high. The headline index came in at 56.6, which was higher than the 53.3 estimate. However, prices have only declined from 70.7 and 70.0. The…