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Euro, Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real lead Currency Speculators bets lower :: InvestMacro

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By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian dollar with a weekly gain of 6,021 contracts while the New Zealand dollar (1,773 contracts) and the Swiss franc (1,411 contracts) also had positive weeks.



The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Mexican peso (-8,820 contracts) and the Euro (-8,392 contracts) with the Brazilian real (-6,128 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,553 contracts), British pound sterling (-2,881 contracts), US Dollar Index (-897 contracts), Canadian dollar (-788 contracts) and Bitcoin(-591 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

 

 

Highlighting this week’s COT currency data is the continued decline in the Euro speculator positions which fell for a second straight week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Euro bets have now dropped by -77,516 contracts in just the past six weeks, going from +52,272 contracts on May 31st to -25,244 contracts this week. This weakness put the current speculator position at the lowest level since March of 2020 but it is nowhere near the extremely bearish levels of years past (for example: -114,021 contracts in 2020 or -182,845 contracts in 2015). There seems to be a lot of room for the speculator position to fall further. Will this bring the Euro price even lower? That is a fascinating question as the largest currency news story of the past few weeks has been the EURUSD reaching parity for the first time in over twenty years. The EURUSD actually hit 0.9952 on Thursday before closing the week near the 1.0080 exchange rate and with the US Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates further soon – the EURUSD will likely remain under pressure but how low can it go?

The other side of the COT data this week is the continued strength of the US Dollar Index speculator positions. The USD Index speculator bets fell this week for a third straight week but remain very much near their recent highs. Speculative positions recently had three straight weeks of over at least +40,000 net contracts for the first time since 2019 while the speculator position also topped +45,000 contracts (on June 21st) for the first time since March 21st of 2017, a span of 274 weeks. The strong sentiment for the dollar has helped boost the US Dollar Index price to a high over 109.00 this week, reaching the highest level since 2002. With the two largest components of the US Dollar Index, the Euro at 57.6 percent of the index and the Japanese yen at 13.6 percent, so weak at the moment, the DXY might challenge the 110 exchange rate in the weeks to come.


Jul-12-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 59,565 88 38,354 89 -40,895 11 2,541 44
EUR 682,031 75 -25,244 27 5,760 78 19,484 7
GBP 231,945 59 -59,089 31 75,405 74 -16,316 22
JPY 223,539 71 -59,998 32 75,067 72 -15,069 23
CHF 41,255 23 -8,724 34 19,882 75 -11,158 20
CAD 139,297 23 3,505 43 -4,653 65 1,148 32
AUD 158,263 51 -41,600 46 52,490 58 -10,890 26
NZD 45,837 36 -5,283 62 8,979 44 -3,696 9
MXN 195,611 47 -23,238 17 20,317 81 2,921 55
RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24
BRL 41,034 28 10,205 60 -10,868 41 663 73
Bitcoin 13,505 77 -171 77 -201 0 372 21

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (88.9 percent) leads the currency markets near the top of its 3-year range and in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (77.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets strength scores with the New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) and the Brazilian Real (60.4 percent) rounding out the only other markets above 50 percent or above their midpoint for the past 3 years . On the downside, the Mexican Peso (17.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the only one in a bearish extreme level.  The EuroFX (27.3 percent) continues to fall and is the second lowest strength score this week.


Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (88.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (90.4 percent)
EuroFX (27.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (29.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (31.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (33.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (31.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (35.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (34.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (44.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (46.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (59.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (17.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (21.2 percent)
Brazil Real (60.4 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (66.4 percent)
Russian Ruble (31.2 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (31.9 percent)
Bitcoin (77.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (87.9 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Swiss Franc (29.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (22.6 percent) and the Japanese Yen (21.2 percent) round out the next highest movers in the latest trends data as the CHF, NZD and the JPY have seen improving sentiment from speculators. The Brazilian Real (-34.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores this week while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Mexican Peso (-25.0 percent) followed by the Euro (-23.8 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.0 percent)
EuroFX (-23.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-17.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (21.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (29.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (24.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (11.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (19.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-2.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (22.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (20.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-25.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-18.9 percent)
Brazil Real (-34.5 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-22.0 percent)
Russian Ruble (-15.6 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (9.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-10.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-7.8 percent)


Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 38,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.8 3.9 9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.4 72.5 4.7
– Net Position: 38,354 -40,895 2,541
– Gross Longs: 51,109 2,305 5,365
– Gross Shorts: 12,755 43,200 2,824
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.0 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.9 10.9 44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.4 0.7 -13.7

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.9 56.5 12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 55.6 9.4
– Net Position: -25,244 5,760 19,484
– Gross Longs: 197,240 385,039 83,394
– Gross Shorts: 222,484 379,279 63,910
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.3 77.7 6.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.8 25.8 -22.2

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.6 75.3 8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.1 42.8 15.2
– Net Position: -59,089 75,405 -16,316
– Gross Longs: 33,850 174,748 18,999
– Gross Shorts: 92,939 99,343 35,315
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.4 74.3 21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.8 -7.0 -6.7

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.9 71.8 10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.7 38.3 17.1
– Net Position: -59,998 75,067 -15,069
– Gross Longs: 35,533 160,589 23,147
– Gross Shorts: 95,531 85,522 38,216
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.9 72.3 22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.2 -14.6 -9.1

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 63.5 19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.2 15.4 46.4
– Net Position: -8,724 19,882 -11,158
– Gross Longs: 7,017 26,217 7,984
– Gross Shorts: 15,741 6,335 19,142
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 4.1 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.4 75.2 19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.7 -15.9 -6.0

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,505 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -788 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9 46.4 22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 49.8 22.0
– Net Position: 3,505 -4,653 1,148
– Gross Longs: 41,613 64,673 31,834
– Gross Shorts: 38,108 69,326 30,686
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.3 64.9 32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.8 -3.6 -12.4

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.3 67.0 10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.6 33.9 17.4
– Net Position: -41,600 52,490 -10,890
– Gross Longs: 30,527 106,112 16,570
– Gross Shorts: 72,127 53,622 27,460
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.3 58.0 25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.6 1.0 -20.6

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.6 61.7 5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.1 42.1 13.4
– Net Position: -5,283 8,979 -3,696
– Gross Longs: 14,926 28,261 2,436
– Gross Shorts: 20,209 19,282 6,132
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.4 44.2 9.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.6 -19.1 -12.0

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,820 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,418 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.5 43.1 3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.4 32.7 1.6
– Net Position: -23,238 20,317 2,921
– Gross Longs: 104,715 84,247 6,023
– Gross Shorts: 127,953 63,930 3,102
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 17.4 81.3 55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.0 25.2 -7.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 10,205 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.8 46.0 7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.9 72.5 5.6
– Net Position: 10,205 -10,868 663
– Gross Longs: 19,197 18,878 2,957
– Gross Shorts: 8,992 29,746 2,294
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.4 40.7 72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -34.5 35.9 -19.8

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.5 1.6 9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 77.7 3.1 6.5
– Net Position: -171 -201 372
– Gross Longs: 10,325 216 1,247
– Gross Shorts: 10,496 417 875
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 77.2 46.1 21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.4 17.5 6.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.


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