Home News Economic calendar for the week 27.06.2022 – 03.07.2022

Economic calendar for the week 27.06.2022 – 03.07.2022

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Review of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week (27.06.2022 – 03.07.2022)

The dollar ended last week with a decrease, and the DXY dollar index lost about 0.5%, falling to the zone below 104.00. Last week, the Fed officials, in particular, Michelle Bowman, confirmed that another 75 bp rate hike in July and at least 50 bp at the next few meetings would be appropriate. The chairman of the Fed Jerome Powell also confirmed in his speeches in Congress that “an unreserved commitment” to the fight against inflation and an attempt “to moderate demand so that inflation can come down” remain a priority for decisions by the US central bank. “The Fed could continue aggressive tightening even if economic activity slows down sharply,” Powell also said. However, inflation in the US (and throughout the world too) continues to grow, and among market participants, there are growing opinions that the Fed is not keeping pace with inflation.

The dollar continues to grow: the prospect of further tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy creates prerequisites for its further strengthening and the fall of the US stock market. At the same time, the yield of US government bonds continues to grow, which indicates sales. Investors exit the stock market assets, preferring the safe dollar.

At the same time, market participants are assessing how effectively the Fed is coping with accelerating inflation, and so far the score is not in its favor: the pace of tightening the Fed’s monetary policy is accelerating, however, inflation continues to grow.

Next week, market participants will pay attention to the publication of important macro statistics fron the US, Australia, Germany, the Eurozone, China, the UK, as well as the speeches of the heads of the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England.

*during the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be canceled

**GMT time

Monday, June 27

12:30 USD Durable goods orders. Capital goods orders (ex defense and aviation)

This indicator reflects the value of orders received by producers of durable goods and capital goods (capital goods are durable commodities used to produce durable goods and services) involving large investments. Goods produced in the defense and aviation sectors of the US economy are not included in this indicator. A high result strengthens the USD. Previous values ​​of the indicator durable goods orders: +0.5% in April, +1.1% in March, -2.1% in February, +1.6% in January, +1.2% in December , +2.6% in November, -0.4% in October, -0.3% in September 2021.

Previous values ​​of the indicator capital goods orders ex defense and aviation: +0.4% in April, +1.3% in March, -0.2% in February, +0.9% in January, +0. 4% in December, -0.1% in November, +0.7% in October, +0.8% in September 2021.

In theory, the relative growth of the indicator has a positive impact on the dollar, and the decline of the indicator is negative. The market reaction to its negative value may also be negative for the dollar in the short term. Data worse than the previous value and/or the forecast will also have a negative impact on dollar quotes.

Forecast for May: +0.1% (durable goods orders).

Better-than-expected data will have a positive impact on the dollar.

18:30 EUR Speech by the ECB President Christine Lagarde

During the speech of the head of the ECB, the volatility of trading increases not only in the euro and European stock indices, but throughout the financial market, especially if Christine Lagarde touches on the subject of the Central Bank’s monetary policy. Any hints of curtailing the QE program in the Eurozone will cause the euro to grow. The soft tone of Lagarde’s speech and the propensity to continue with the ECB’s extra loose monetary policy will have a negative impact on the euro. If Christine Lagarde does not touch on the subject of the ECB’s monetary policy, then the reaction to her speech will be weak.

Tuesday, June 28

No important macro statistics scheduled to be released. However, traders should pay attention to the speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde at 08:00. The soft tone of Lagarde’s speech and the propensity to continue with the ECB’s extra loose monetary policy will have a negative impact on the euro. If Christine Lagarde does not touch on the subject of the ECB’s monetary policy, then the reaction to her speech will be weak.

Wednesday, June 29

01:30 AUD Retail Sales Index

Retail Sales Level Index is published monthly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and measures total retail sales. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and reflects the state of the retail sector in the short term. The growth of the index is usually a positive factor for the AUD; a decrease in the indicator will negatively affect the AUD. The previous value of the index (for April) was +0.9% (after an increase of +1.6% in March, +1.8% in February and January). If the data turns out to be weaker than the previous value, the AUD may drop sharply in the short term, but if it’s above the previous values, the AUD is likely to strengthen. Forecast for May: +0.4%.

11:10 GBP Speech by head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey

Financial market participants are expecting Andrew Bailey to clarify the situation regarding the future policy of the UK central bank. Volatility during a speech by the head of the Bank of England usually rises sharply in the quotes of the pound and the FTSE London Stock Exchange index if he gives any hints of tightening or easing monetary policy of the Bank of England. Probably, Andrew Bailey will also give explanations regarding the decision taken by the Bank of England on the interest rate and touch upon the state and prospects of the British economy after Brexit against the backdrop of a sharp rise in energy prices and inflation. If Bailey does not touch on monetary policy issues, the reaction to his speech will be weak.

12:00 EUR Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (preliminary release)

This index is published by the EU Statistics Office and is calculated on the basis of a statistical method agreed between all EU countries. It is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the Governing Council of the ECB to assess the level of price stability. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative result weakens it.

Previous indicator values: +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022, +5.7 % in December, +6.0% in November, +4.6% in October, +4.1% in September, +3.4% in August, +3.1% in July, +2.1% in June, +2.4% in May, +2.1% in April, +2.0% in March, +1.6% in January and February, -0.7% in December and negative values ​​in the second half of 2020 year (in annual terms). If the data for June is better than the previous values, the euro may strengthen in the short term. The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the euro. The data points to mounting inflationary pressures in Germany. Data worse than the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Forecast: +8.8% in June (according to preliminary estimates).

12:30 USD US annual GDP for the 1st quarter (final estimate)

GDP data is one of the key indicators (along with data on the labor market and inflation) for the Fed in terms of its monetary policy. Strong result strengthens US dollar; a weak report on GDP has a negative impact on the US dollar. In the previous 4th quarter, GDP grew by +6.9%, by +2.3% in the 3rd quarter, in the 2nd quarter of GDP – by +6.7%, in the 1st quarter of 2021 by +6.3%. If the data points to a decline in GDP in the 1st quarter of 2022, the dollar will come under pressure. Positive data on GDP will support the dollar and US stock indices. Forecast: -1.5% (1st estimate was -1.4% and the second -1.5%).

13:00 USD Speeches by heads of the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England

The comments of the head of the Fed Powell, the head of theECB Lagarde, the head of the Bank of England Bailey may increase volatility in the market and in the USD, EUR, GBP quotes. A more hawkish stance on the central bank’s monetary policy is seen as positive and strengthens the national currency, while a more cautious stance is seen as negative for them.

Financial market participants will carefully study their speech in order to catch signals regarding further actions by the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, respectively.

15:00 EUR Speech by the ECB President Christine Lagarde

During the speech of the head of the ECB, the volatility of trading increases not only in the euro and European stock indices, but throughout the financial market, especially if Christine Lagarde touches on the subject of the Central Bank’s monetary policy. Any hints of curtailing the QE program in the Eurozone will cause the euro to grow. The soft tone of Lagarde’s speech and the propensity to continue with the ECB’s extra loose monetary policy will have a negative impact on the euro. If Christine Lagarde does not touch on the subject of the ECB’s monetary policy, then the reaction to her speech will be weak.

Thursday, June 30

01:00 CNY Manufacturing and Services PMIs of the Chinese economy from the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation (CFLP)

This indicator is an important indicator of the state of the Chinese economy as a whole. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the CNY, while one below 50 is negative for the yuan. Previous values: 49.6 in May, 47.4 in April, 50.2 in February, 50.1 in January.

The relative growth of the index and the value of 50 should have a positive effect on the CNY. The data above the value of 50 indicate an increase in activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. Otherwise, and if the value of the indicator is below 50 yuan, it will be under pressure and is likely to decrease. June forecast: 49.6.

Services PMI assesses the state of the services sector in the Chinese economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the yuan. Previous values: 47.8 in May, 41.9 in April, 51.6 in February, 51.1 in January.

Despite the relative decline, the indicator is still above 50, which is likely to have a positive impact on the yuan quotes. Otherwise, and if the value of the indicator is below 50 yuan, it will be under pressure and is likely to decrease.

Forecast for June: 52,5.

06:00 GBP UK GDP for the 1st quarter (final estimate)

GDP is considered an indicator of the overall health of the British economy. The growing trend of the GDP indicator is considered positive for the GBP. The UK GDP was one of the highest in the world until 2016, when the Brexit referendum was held. Subsequently, its growth slowed down, and with the onset of the global coronavirus pandemic, the growth rate of British GDP completely moved into negative territory.

Previous GDP values: +1.3% in Q4, +1.0% in Q3, +5.5% in Q2 after falling -1.6% in Q1 2021 of the year. The main factors that could force the Bank of England to keep the rate low are weak GDP and labor market growth, as well as low consumer spending. If GDP data turns out to be significantly worse than previous values, this will put downward pressure on the pound. A strong GDP report will strengthen the pound.

Forecast for the 1st quarter of 2022: +0.8% (the first estimate was +0.8%, slightly better than the forecast of +0.7%).

06:00 EUR Retail Sales in Germany

Retail sales is the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany showing the change in retail sales. A high result strengthens the euro, and vice versa, a low result weakens it. Previous values: -5.4% (-0.4% yoy) in April, -0.1% (-2.7% yoy) in March, +0.3% (+7.0% in annual terms) in February, +2.0% (+10.3% in annual terms) in January, -5.5% (0% in annual terms) in December, +0.8% (+0.5 % YoY) in November, +0.5% (-2.9% YoY) in October, -1.9% (-0.6% YoY) in September 2021.

The data indicate the instability of the recovery of this sector of the German economy due to coronavirus lockdowns among other things. Data better than the forecast and / or the previous value is likely to have a positive impact on the euro, but only in the short term. Forecast for May: +0.8%.

23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook

This index reflects general business conditions for Japan’s large manufacturing companies and is an indicator of the current state of Japan’s export-oriented economy, which is heavily dependent on the industrial sector.

Growing values ​​and the value of the indicator above 0 (zero – the middle line) is a positive factor for the JPY, and the value of the indicator below 0 is negative.

The index is forecast to decline slightly to 13 (Q2 2022) after rising to 14 in Q1, 17 and 18 in Q4 and Q3 2021, which is likely to support yen, but, above all, Japanese stock indices.

Friday, July 1

09:00 EUR Consumer Price Index. Core CPI (preliminary release)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is published by Eurostat and measures the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. The index is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changing consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative result weakens it.

Forecast for June 2022: +8.3% (yoy) against +8.1% in May, +7.4% in April and March, +5.9% in February, +5.1% in January , +5.0% in December. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast, the euro may sharply decline in the short term. Data better than the forecast and / or the previous value may strengthen the euro in the short term. The target level of consumer inflation of the ECB is slightly below 2.0%, and the data indicate an acceleration of inflation in the Eurozone.

Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) determines the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period and is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changing consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator for a more accurate estimate. A high result strengthens the EUR, while a low result weakens it. In December 2021, Core CPI increased by +2.6% (in annual terms), in January – by +2.3%, in February – by +2.7%, in March – by +2.9%, in April – by +3.5%, in May – by +3.8%. If the data for June 2022 turns out to be worse than the previous value or forecast, this may negatively affect the euro. If the data turns out to be better than the forecast or the previous value, the euro is likely to react with an increase in quotations. Core inflation in the Eurozone is accelerating, which is positive (under normal economic conditions) for the euro. June forecast: +3.9%.

14:00 USD US Manufacturing PMI (from ISM)

The US Manufacturing PMI published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is an important indicator of the state of the US economy as a whole. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the USD, while one below 50 is considered negative for the US dollar. Forecast: 55.0 in June (against 56.1 in May, 55.4 in April, 57.1 in March, 58.6 in February, 57.6 in January). The index is above the 50 level and has a relatively high value, which is likely to support the dollar. Data above the value of 50 indicates an acceleration of activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. If the indicator falls below the forecast and especially below the value of 50, the dollar may sharply weaken in the short term.

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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