Home News Economic calendar for the week 13.06.2022 – 19.06.2022

Economic calendar for the week 13.06.2022 – 19.06.2022

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Review of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week (13.06.2022 – 19.06.2022)

The dollar defeated its main competitors on the foreign exchange market and ended the past week with an overwhelming advantage.

The DXY dollar index again broke through the 104.00 mark last Friday, and added 2% over the past week.

The US inflation rose in May to a new 40-year high of 8.6% (year-on-year), the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Now, after another round of prices, market participants are waiting for more decisive action from the Fed to curb inflation. The next Fed meeting will be held next week, and investors will carefully study the text of the accompanying statement in order to understand the further plans of the central bankers.

Still, the risks of stagflation are rising: inflation is already outstripping the pace of economic growth. If the Fed fails to deal with it without harming the US economy, the result could be dire. And the Fed, it must be admitted, is in a difficult situation, no matter what its representatives say about the stability of the American economy. By the way, the head of the US Treasury Janet Yellen last week already accused the Fed of excessive price growth, while recognizing external risks, in particular, disruption of supply chains and a crisis in the energy market.

A very volatile trading week has come to an end. And next week, which also promises to be no less interesting, market participants will pay attention to the publication of important macro statistics from the UK, Germany, the Eurozone, China, the US, Australia, New Zealand, as well as the results of meetings of the central banks of the US, UK, Switzerland, and Japan.

*during the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be canceled

**GMT time

Monday, June 13

No important macro statistics scheduled to be released.

Tuesday, June 14

06:00 GBP Report on the average wages of the British for the last 3 months. Unemployment rate

Every month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes a report on average wages, including the period for the last 3 months, with and without bonuses.

This report is a key short-term indicator of the dynamics of wages in the UK. Wages growth is a positive factor for the GBP, while the low value of the indicator is negative. Forecast: The June report suggests that the average wages with bonuses rose again in the last calculated 3 months (February-April), by +7.6% after an increase of +7.0%, +5.4%, +4 .8%, +4.3%, +4.2%, +4.9%, +5.8%, +7.2%, +8.3%, +8.8%, +7.3%, +5.6%, +4.0% in previous periods); wages without bonuses also increased (by +4.0%) after growth by +4.2%, +4.0%, +3.8%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +4.3% , +4.9%, +6.0%, +6.8%, +7.4%, +6.6%, +5.6%, +4.6% in previous periods). Thus, the data points to the continued growth of wages, which is a positive factor for the pound. If the data turns out to be better than the forecast and / or previous values, then the pound is likely to strengthen in the foreign exchange market. Data worse than forecast/previous values ​​will have a negative impact on the pound.

Also at this time, data on unemployment in the UK are published. It is expected that for 3 months from February to April, unemployment was at the level of 3.8% (against 3.7%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.5%, 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.8%, 4.7%, 4.8%, 4.9%, 5.0%, 5.1%, 5.0% in previous periods).

Since 2012, the UK unemployment rate has steadily declined (from 8.0% in September 2012). This is a positive factor for the pound, the rise in unemployment is a negative factor.

If the data from the UK labor market turns out to be worse than the forecast and / or the previous value, the pound will be under pressure.

In any case, at the time of publication of data from the British labor market, an increase in volatility in the pound quotes and on the London Stock Exchange is expected.

06:00 EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in Germany (final release)

This index is published by the EU Statistics Office and is calculated on the basis of a statistical method agreed between all EU countries. It is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the Governing Council of the ECB to assess the level of price stability. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative result weakens it.

Previous indicator values: +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January, +5.7% in December, +6.0% in November, +4.6% in October, +4.1% in September, +3.4% in August, +3.1% in July, +2.1% in June, +2.4% in May, +2.1% in April, +2.0% in March, +1.6% in January and February, -0.7% in December and negative values ​​in the second half of 2020 (in annual terms). If the May data turns out to be better than the previous values, the euro may strengthen in the short term. The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the euro. The data points to mounting inflationary pressures in Germany. Data worse than the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Forecast: +8.7% in May, which is in line with the preliminary estimate.

Wednesday, June 15

02:00 CNY Retail Sales Index

Retail Sales Level Index is published monthly by China’s National Bureau of Statistics and evaluates the total volume of retail sales and cash generated. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and economic well-being and reflects the state of the retail sector in the near term. The growth of the index is usually a positive factor for the CNY; a decrease in the indicator will negatively affect the CNY. The previous value of the index (in annual terms) was -11.1% (after an increase of +8% in the last months of 2019 and a fall of -20.5% in February 2020). Outlook: May 2022 retail sales down -7.3% in China (YoY). This is weak data after rising at the end of last year and early 2022, which indicates a slowing pace of recovery after a strong fall in February-March 2020. If the data turns out to be even weaker, the CNY could weaken sharply.

12:30 USD Retail sales. Retail control group

This report (Retail Sales) reflects the total sales of retailers of all sizes and types. The change in retail sales is the main indicator of consumer spending. The report is a leading indicator and data may be heavily revised in the future. A high result strengthens the US dollar, a low result weakens it. A relative decrease in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the dollar, and an increase in the indicator will have a positive effect on the USD. In the previous month (April), the value of the indicator was +0.9% (after falling by -1.9% in December, rising by +0.2% in November, +1.8% in October, +0.8% in September, +0.9% in August 2021), which indicates that the improvement in this sector of the American economy is still unstable. Forecast for May: +0.2%.

Retail sales is the main indicator of consumer spending in the US showing the change in retail sales. The Retail Control Group measures volume across the entire retail industry and is used to calculate price indices for most products. A high result strengthens the US dollar, and vice versa, a weak report weakens the dollar. A slight increase in indicators is unlikely to accelerate the growth of the dollar. The data worse than the previous period (+1.0% in April, -0.1% in March, -1.2% in February, +3.8% in January, -3.1% in December, -0.1 % in November, +1.6% in October, +0.5% in September, +2.6% in August) may negatively affect the dollar in the short term. Forecast for May: +1.5%.

18:00 USD The Fed’s interest rate decision. The Fed’s monetary policy statement. Summary of Economic Projections by the Federal Open Market Committee

In March 2020, the Fed cut interest rates sharply (to 0.25% from 1.75% in February) and also announced $700 billion purchases of the US government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Subsequently, the Fed repeatedly announced additional measures to support the US economy and inject cheap liquidity into the financial system. Usually, with the easing of monetary policy, the national currency becomes cheaper and its quotes decrease.

In 2020, the dollar was declining, because investors were withdrawing funds from safe-haven assets, buying riskier and more profitable assets of the stock market, which continued to grow despite the threat of a second wave of the coronavirus epidemic and the associated economic slowdown. The role of the dollar as a defensive asset also declined. However, in 2021 the situation has changed – the dollar has strengthened. Now market participants are waiting for the US central bank to accelerate the cycle of tightening monetary policy.

It is widely expected that at this meeting the rate will again be raised by 0.50% to 1.50%. However, during the period of publication of the rate decision, volatility may rise sharply throughout the financial market, primarily in the US stock market and in dollar quotes, especially if the rate decision differs from the forecast or unexpected statements are received from the Fed management.

Powell’s comments could affect both short-term and long-term USD trading. A more hawkish stance on the Fed’s monetary policy is seen as positive and strengthens the US dollar, while a more cautious stance is seen as negative for the USD. Investors want to hear Powell’s opinion on the Fed’s plans for this year.

Of interest will also be the Fed report with forecasts for inflation and economic growth for the next two years and, no less important, individual opinions of the FOMC members on interest rates.

18:30 USD Press conference of the FOMC (Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve)

The press conference of the Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve lasts about an hour. The first part contains the reading of the ruling, followed by a series of questions and answers that can increase market volatility. Any hints from Powell about the possibility of changing the current monetary policy will cause an increase in volatility in dollar quotes and in the US stock market.

22:45 NZD New Zealand GDP for the 1st quarter

The publication of the data will cause increased volatility in the NZD. Considering the recent rise in prices for commodities and agricultural products (especially for dairy products, which are the most important component of New Zealand exports), and the fact that New Zealand has been the least affected by the coronavirus pandemic compared to other major economies, it is likely that the New Zealand GDP report for the 1st quarter will come out with positive indicators.

GDP is expected to grow in the 1st quarter of 2022 (previous values ​​+3.0%, -3.7%, +2.8%, +1.6%, -1.0%, +13.9% , -11%, -1.2%, +0.1%). Previous values ​​in annual terms: +3.1%, +17.4%, +2.4%, -0.9%, +0.2%, -11.3%, 0%, +1.7%. The data so far remain conflicting, although they indicate a continued gradual recovery of the New Zealand economy after its fall in the first half of 2020. Data worse than previous values ​​will negatively affect NZD quotes. Forecast for the 1st quarter of 2022: +0.6% (+3.3% in annual terms).

Thursday, June 16

01:30 AUD Employment rate. Unemployment rate

The employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed Australians. The growth of the indicator has a positive impact on consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth. A high value is positive for the AUD, while a low value is negative. Previous values ​​of the indicator: +4,000 in April, +17,900 in March, +77,400 in February, +12,900 in January 2022.

Also at the same time, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on the unemployment rate – an indicator that assesses the ratio of the unemployed population to the total number of able-bodied citizens. The growth of the indicator indicates the weakness of the labor market, which leads to a weakening of the national economy. The decrease in the indicator is a positive factor for the AUD. Outlook: Unemployment in Australia stood at 3.8% in May (against 3.9% in April, 4.0% in March and February, and 4.2% in January), approaching pre-coronavirus levels.

The RBA officials have repeatedly stated that in addition to the situation in international trade, the Australian economy and the central bank’s monetary policy plans are affected by indicators of the level of debts and household spending, growth in wages of workers, as well as the state of the country’s labor market. If the values ​​of the indicators turn out to be worse than the forecast, the Australian dollar may decline significantly in the short term. Better-than-expected data will strengthen the AUD in the short term.

07:30 CHF SNB’s decision on the interest rate. SNB’s Monetary Policy Statement

The current deposit rate is in negative territory at -0.75%. At the previous meeting in March, the rate remained at the same level. The Central Bank of Switzerland has consistently advocated a loose monetary policy in the country, and traditionally considers the exchange rate of the national currency to be “overpriced”. The franc has lost much of its status as a safe-haven currency lately, and the threat of intervention is certainly holding back the franc from excessive growth. According to SNB officials, the franc is “still very overvalued” and intervention in the foreign exchange market remains “an important means of maintaining the low attractiveness of investments in francs and easing upward pressure on the currency.”

Traders will also scrutinize the SNB’s statement for signals regarding the SNB’s future monetary policy plans. Tough rhetoric of the statement will help strengthen the franc. The SNB’s soft tone and propensity to continue its extra loose monetary policy will have a negative impact on the franc. High volatility is expected in the foreign exchange market and, above all, in trading in the franc, if the SNB management makes unexpected statements.

11:00 GBP Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England. The planned volume of asset purchases by the Bank of England. Monetary Policy Report

Following the results of the December meeting, the Bank of England unexpectedly raised its key interest rate to 0.25%, becoming the first leading central bank to increase the cost of borrowing since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. In February, the interest rate was raised to 0.50%, in March to 0.75%, and in May to 1.00%. Members of the Monetary Policy Committee considered it appropriate to increase the cost of borrowing in a strong labor market to contain price increases. At the same time, further tightening of monetary policy may be required to bring inflation to the target level of 2.0%.

It is possible that at this meeting the Bank of England will again raise the interest rate (up to 1.25%), while maintaining the volume of purchases of government bonds at the same level of 895 billion pounds. However, despite the positive macro data from the UK, the interest rate may remain at the same level of 1.00%, given the situation in Ukraine. Such a decision could cause the pound to weaken.

Also at this time, the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England are published with the votes “for” and “against” the increase / decrease in the interest rate. The main risks for the UK after Brexit are associated with expectations of a slowdown in the country’s economic growth, as well as a large current account deficit in the UK’s balance of payments.

The intrigue about the further actions of the Bank of England remains. And in trading the pound and FTSE100 index futures, there are plenty of trading opportunities during the publication of the bank’s rate decision.

Also at the same time the report of the Bank of England on monetary policy will be published, containing an assessment of economic prospects and inflation. At this time, the volatility in the pound quotes can rise sharply. One of the main benchmarks for the Bank of England regarding the prospects for monetary policy in the UK, in addition to GDP, is the inflation rate. If the tone of the report is soft, then the British stock market will receive support, and the pound will fall. Conversely, the report’s tough rhetoric on curbing inflation, which implies a further increase in the interest rate in the UK, will lead to a strengthening of the pound.

Friday, June 17

03:00 JPY Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision. Bank of Japan’s Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement

The Bank of Japan will decide on the interest rate. At the moment, the rate in Japan is in negative territory, amounting to -0.1%. Most likely, the rate will remain at the same level. If it is cut and deepens into negative territory, such a decision will cause a sharp decline in the yen in the foreign exchange market and an increase in the Japanese stock market. In any case, a jump in volatility in trading in the yen and in the Asian financial market is expected during this period of time.

Since February 2016, the Bank of Japan has kept the deposit rate at -0.1%. The yield target for 10-year bonds is currently in the 0% region. One of the recent accompanying statements from the Bank of Japan said that the bank’s management will continue to “increase the monetary base until inflation is stable above 2%.” “We will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary,” the bank also traditionally said in a statement.

During the press conference, the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda will comment on the bank’s monetary policy. The Bank of Japan continues to adhere to its ultra-soft monetary policy. As Kuroda has repeatedly stated before, “it is appropriate for Japan to patiently continue the current loose monetary policy.” Markets usually react actively to Kuroda’s speeches. He will certainly touch upon the topic of monetary policy during his speech, which will cause an increase in volatility not only in yen trading, but throughout the Asian and global financial markets.

If bank officials decide that the Japanese economy is stable and inflation momentum towards the 2% target is not diminishing, they will refrain from changing policy.

06:00 JPY Bank of Japan’s Press Conference

During the press conference, the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda will comment on the bank’s monetary policy. The Bank of Japan continues to adhere to its ultra-soft monetary policy. As Kuroda has repeatedly stated before, “it is appropriate for Japan to patiently continue the current loose monetary policy.” Markets usually react actively to Kuroda’s speeches. He will certainly touch upon the topic of monetary policy during his speech, which will cause an increase in volatility not only in yen trading, but throughout the Asian and global financial markets.

Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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