US headline PPI declined -0.5% in July and the core rate was up 0.2%, again missing on the downside, after respective gains of 1.0% (was 1.1%) and 0.4% in June. This is the first monthly drop since April 2020 and is off of the all-time high of 1.7% from March (data goes back to 2009). Most of the major components except food cooled last month. In the meantime, initial jobless claims jumped 14k to 262k in the week ended August 6, following unusually big downward claims revisions in the last two weeks, leaving what is still a big 4-month climb from the 53-year low of 166k in March. The 4-month uptrend in initial claims and the 10-week uptrend for continuing claims suggest downside risk for our 230k August nonfarm payroll estimate, and much greater downside risk into Q4.
Click here to access our Economic Calendar
Head Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.