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Chinese PMIs and Possible Commodity Currency Recovery


With lingering questions on how much of an impact China’s reopening will have on the global economy, there’s likely to be increased focus on leading economic indicators from the country. PMIs are the most important, as they provide insight into economic trends and are the latest data. When the economy is booming, purchasing managers will be among the first ones to notice the rise in demand.

PMI is especially important for commodity currencies such as the NZD, AUD, and CAD. It is expected that Chinese companies will increase their purchases of materials to meet the demand. This applies to commodities as well as machinery from Japan and Europe. Due to geopolitical tensions surrounding semiconductors, Chinese demand may grow unevenly.

Important is the context

Another aspect is that China was closed for the lunar new years for a week, which is likely to reflect in PMI numbers. The market could react to Chinese trading returning over the weekend. This could have a relative effect on how it perceives PMI figures.

A comparison of the two PMI readings could have implications for commodity currencies, especially the AUD.

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