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AUD/USD: RBA is too late to tighten monetary policy – Analytics & Forecasts – 1 September 2022


According to some well-known economists, the RBA was late in tightening monetary policy, “the previous RBA forecast that no rate hikes would be required before 2024 was wrong”, and “now the rate hike should be much more significant than if they started to act before”.

Recall that the next RBA meeting on this issue will be held early next week (Tuesday). The current RBA interest rate is 1.85%. At a monetary policy meeting on August 2, RBA board members decided to raise the official monetary rate (OCR) by 50 basis points, and, according to the minutes from the August meeting, the bank’s management is set to “further steps in the process of normalizing monetary conditions in the coming months, but is not on the predetermined path.”

At the time of publication of this article, it is trading near 0.6827, remaining in the bear market zone below the key resistance levels 0.7100, 0.7260, and remaining prone to further decline (for more details, see “AUD / USD: technical analysis and trading recommendations for 09/01/2022“). Most likely, after the retest and the breakdown of the “round” support level 0.6900, AUD/USD will continue to fall inside the downward channel on the weekly chart.

Now in the dynamics of AUD/USD, one should focus on the dynamics of the US dollar, especially on the eve of the publication on Friday (at 12:30 GMT) of data on the US labor market for August.

Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6700, 0.6685, 0.6660, 0.6500, 0.6455, 0.6270, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510

Resistance levels: 0.6850, 0.6898, 0.6933, 0.6945, 0.7000, 0.7055, 0.7100, 0.7130, 0.7200, 0.7260

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