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Fed Waller supports larger than 75bps hike if retail sales and housing data materially stronger than expected

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Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech that as the base case, he supports another 75bps rate hike at the July 26-27 FOMC meeting. This level is “close to neutral”, neither stimulates nor restricts demand.

But Waller added, if upcoming retail sales and housing data “come in materially stronger than expected it would make me lean towards a larger hike at the July meeting to the extent it shows demand is not slowing down fast enough to get inflation down.”

After July, Waller expects “monetary policy to be restrictive until there has been a sustained reduction in core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation, which excludes food and energy.” And, “until I see a significant moderation in core prices, I support further rate hikes,” he added.

Full speech here.

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